[Jdm-society] Experience and expertise

Wed May 23 13:46:21 CDT 2007

Olga,
Most findings attest to the lack of a relation between these variables
(e.g., Ashton, 1974, 2000; Dawes, 1994; Einhorn & Hogarth, 1978). Without
feedback, experience only increases experts' overconfidence (Shanteau,
1988). Shanteau also makes the point that confidence is one of the qualities
by which people would define an expert, and would seek to see one display.
So in fact, experts are being rewarded for being confident, even if It is
overconfidence. 
Few fields, such as weather forecasting (Murphey & Winkler, 1974) or horse
race commentating (Dowie, 1976) provide experts with frequent feedback,
which improves the experts' calibration almost on a daily basis. 

I find it interesting that in these specific fields the expert is restricted
to predicting, rather than determining a course of action, administering a
treatment and evaluating the results... This goes back to the previous
discussion on this list, regarding the experimenter bias.

Talya Miron-Shatz
Research Associate
Center for Health and Wellbeing
Princeton University

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Today's Topics:

   1. Re: Clinical diagnosis and length of practice (Maya Bar-Hillel)
   2. Lectureship in Psychology (Sabine Pahl)

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Message: 1
Date: Wed, 23 May 2007 16:46:28 +0300 (IDT)
From: Maya Bar-Hillel <msmaya at math.huji.ac.il>
Subject: Re: [Jdm-society] Clinical diagnosis and length of practice
To: Olga Kostopoulou <o.kostopoulou at bham.ac.uk>
Cc: jdm-society at mail.sjdm.org
Message-ID: <Pine.GSO.4.50_heb2.09.0705231644540.3828-100000 at sundial>
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII

Actually, what research shows is an absence of positive correlation, if not
a negative one, between clinical performance and clinical experience, See,
e.g., Robyn Dawes' House of Cards.
Maya BH

===================================================================
Prof. Maya Bar-Hillel                   Telephone numbers (972-2):
The Center for Rationality                5630742 (home)
The Hebrew University	                  6586253 (office phone)
Jerusalem 91904		                  6513681 (office fax)
===================================================================

On Tue, 22 May 2007, Olga Kostopoulou wrote:

> Apologies to those who received this already via the SMDM-L list.
>
> Are you aware of studies that have shown a positive link between 
> diagnostic accuracy or performance and length of clinical experience 
> (years in practice)?
> Not studies that compared students with doctors or doctors from 
> different specialities.
> many thanks
> Olga
>
>
> Olga Kostopoulou, PhD
> Department of Primary Care & General Practice, Primary Care Clinical 
> Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT,
>
> UK
> Tel: +44(0)121 414 5390
> Fax: +44(0)121 414 3759
>
> E-mail: o.kostopoulou at bham.ac.uk
>
>
>
>
>

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Message: 2
Date: Wed, 23 May 2007 15:41:07 +0100
From: "Sabine Pahl" <sabine.pahl at plymouth.ac.uk>
Subject: [Jdm-society] Lectureship in Psychology
To: <jdm-society at mail.sjdm.org>
Message-ID:

<1206CDC3D8E6C646AB569E3013735BF9064C6BAF at 03-CSEXCH.uopnet.plymouth.ac.uk>

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** Apologies for cross-posting **

Lecturer in Psychology

Faculty of Science - School of Psychology

Ref: A0198 

Salary ?27,465 to ?39,160 pa - Grade 7/8

The School of Psychology is looking to make a permanent appointment to
strengthen its current staffing. The School was ranked 5 in the last RAE and
rated excellent in the last Teaching Quality Assessment. You are likely to
have a demonstrated track record of research excellence in Psychology. 

We welcome applications from strong candidates in any area of psychology.
Currently, the School has established research groups in the areas of
Thinking and Reasoning, Memory, Health, Vision, Applied Cognition, Language
Development and Social Psychology. You would be expected to be able to
contribute to one of these research groups, or be involved in the
establishment of a new research grouping. 

You must be willing and able to join the School by 1 October 2007, at the
latest. 

The interviews will be held on 16 & 17 July 2007. 

For an informal discussion, please contact Professor Tim Perfect, Head of
School by email tim.perfect at plymouth.ac.uk although applications must be
made in accordance with the details shown on the front of this Bulletin. 

CLOSING DATE: 12 NOON, MONDAY 25 JUNE 2007 

Job description and further particulars may be obtained at:
http://www.jobs.ac.uk/jobfiles/RH797.html 

............................................................................
.........

Sabine Pahl, School of Psychology,

University of Plymouth, Drake Circus,

Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK

++44 (0)1752 233141

sabine.pahl at plymouth.ac.uk

http://www.plymouth.ac.uk/staff/spahl 

............................................................................
.........

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