[Jdm-society] Replications

[Jonathan Baron]

I completely agree with the (unidentified) person who wrote about
finicky effects.

Moreover, I'm bothered by the lack of specific examples in this
thread.  I think this lack points to a problem, which is that people
who do the original studies that fail to replicate take the failure
personally.  It is difficult to write about a failure to replicate
without sounding aggressive, or being aggressive, or being unfair.

Let me give a specific example of a finicky effect.  The polarization
effect reported first by Lord, Ross, and Lepper (JPSP 1979) is very
important, yet very difficult to replicate.  This is because many
factors work against it.  It requires a very extreme effect to
overcome the tendencies to respond to mixed evidence by moving in the
direction of moderation.

To me, failures to replicate this effect are of no interest.  The fact
that it happened a couple of times shows that it is real and that
"biased assimilation" of evidence can sometimes (if rarely) be strong
enough to overcome the rational forces pulling in the opposite
direction.

Very likely, such biased assimilation is at work in many conflicts.
In the real world, we cannot tell.  But knowing that it is possible in
the laboratory makes us aware of the possibility in the world outside.

Jon
-- 
Jonathan Baron, Professor of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania
Home page: http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~baron
Editor: Judgment and Decision Making (http://journal.sjdm.org)
President: Society for Judgment and Decision Making (http://www.sjdm.org)