[Jdm-society] calibration in chess

[Daniel Kahneman]

Have there been studies of the calibration of expert players in 
judgments of chess situations -- e.g., probability that white will win?

In terms of the amount and quality experience and feedback, chess 
players are at least as privileged as weather forecasters and 
racetrack bettors -- but they don't have the experience of expressing 
their judgments in probabilities. I am guessing that the distinction 
between a game that is "certainly lost" and "probably lost" is one 
that very good players can make reliably, but I know of no evidence.