[Jdm-society] Jdm-society Digest, Vol 92, Issue 9

Thu Aug 10 18:02:29 CDT 2006

Having been told once that this is not the place for her sophomoric
political rants, Deborah Frisch continues to use this listserv for that
purpose. Please ban her from this list or unsubscribe me. If I want to read
idiotic opinions about the Middle East I can go to her blog. This is a forum
for the discussion of science, not politics. At least, it used to be.

-d.

Prof. Daniel Gilbert
Department of Psychology
1430 William James Hall
33 Kirkland Street
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA 02138 USA 
Latitude: 42°, 22', 19" NW 
Longitude: 71°, 6', 40" W

Tel & Fax: 617.495.3892 
Assistant: Beth Mela, WJH 1456, 617.496.2595, bethmela at wjh.harvard.edu 

Website: http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/~dtg/gilbert.htm 
Blog: http://www.randomhouse.com/kvpa/gilbert/blog/ 

NOTICE: This email may contain disclaimers in tiny fonts that are closer
than they appear in the mirror. No raw or uncooked foods were harmed in the
production of this email, which neither includes nor implies batteries. 

-----Original Message-----
From: jdm-society-bounces at mail.sjdm.org
[mailto:jdm-society-bounces at mail.sjdm.org] On Behalf Of
jdm-society-request at mail.sjdm.org
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2006 1:00 PM
To: jdm-society at mail.sjdm.org
Subject: Jdm-society Digest, Vol 92, Issue 9

Send Jdm-society mailing list submissions to
	jdm-society at mail.sjdm.org

To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit
	http://www.sjdm.org/mailman/listinfo/jdm-society
or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to
	jdm-society-request at mail.sjdm.org

You can reach the person managing the list at
	jdm-society-owner at mail.sjdm.org

When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific than
"Re: Contents of Jdm-society digest..."

Today's Topics:

   1. NDM commentary (Joshua Klayman)
   2. golda meir, feminist bank tellers, etc. (Deborah Frisch)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Message: 1
Date: Wed, 09 Aug 2006 12:37:42 -0500
From: Joshua Klayman <joshk at uchicago.edu>
Subject: [Jdm-society] NDM commentary
To: jdm-society at mail.sjdm.org
Message-ID: <6.2.1.2.2.20060809123227.02070898 at gsbims.uchicago.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed

Re: Naturalistic Decision Making
At the 2003 NDM conference, I was asked to comment on the work presented at
the conference as a whole, with the approach of a friendly critic.  I was
very impressed with the breadth and depth of the work presented there.  But
I felt that NDM was being greatly limited by the fact that, for the most
part, it just wasn't science, and was in some cases was (needlessly) even
anti-science.  I wished NDM would wholeheartedly join the scientific
endeavor, without giving up its unique connection to fascinating, important,
real decision making, and, of course, I offered some suggestions for how.  I
think NDM has been moving in good directions since then, and has been
gaining somewhat more mainstream acceptance, but it still has a way to go.
If you're interested, my conference remarks (just 2 1/2 pages) are posted at
http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/joshua.klayman/research/NDM-6-commentary.doc

[These update earlier comments on NDM that appeared in JBDM:  Klayman, J.
(2001).  Ambivalence in (not about) Naturalistic Decision Making.  JBDM, 14,
372-373.]

Josh Klayman

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 2 Aug 2006 17:39:43 -0400
From: "Winston Sieck  ARA/KAD" <wsieck at decisionmaking.com>
Subject: Re: [Jdm-society] Back to Naturalistic decision making
To: <jdm-society at mail.sjdm.org>
Message-ID:
         <62C44C2EB1D4984BA7101DDE3D80C078252694 at kad-mailsrv.ara.wan>
Content-Type: text/plain;       charset="us-ascii"

The original thread flagged some interesting research tied to NDM, and the
initial responses were quite pertinent.  I disagree somewhat with the idea
that the lack of peer-reviewed NDM pubs has to do with commercial funding.
That's certainly part of the issue, but I believe the bigger driver to be
that the main JDM journals are geared heavily towards experimental research,
which, of course, has a very different set of constraints and quality
notions than field research.  It's a little like Jane Goodall trying to
publish in Microbiology or Cell.  My perception is that what gets into the
more experimental journals describes & attempts to justify field methods and
"grand views" of NDM, rather than reporting on particular projects.  A
couple of papers along those lines are:

Hoffman, R. R., & Woods, D. D. (2000). Studying cognitive systems in
context. Human Factors, 42, 1-7.

Hoffman, R. R., Crandall, B., & Shadbolt, N. (1998). A case study in the
methodology of cognitive task analysis: Use of Critical Decision Method to
elicit expert knowledge. Human Factors, 40, 254-276.

Another good paper discussing field research in decision making is:

Fischhoff, B. (1999).  The real world: What good is it?  OBHDP, 65, 232-248.

IEEE: Intelligent Systems is another source for thought pieces and some
research reports for NDM.

More significantly, there is also a new journal specifically for NDM-type
field research, called:  Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision
Making.
http://www.hfes.org/Publications/ProductDetail.aspx?ProductID=64

Currently, much of the work in this area is published in the edited volumes
that have followed from the bi-annual NDM conference, the next of which will
be held in Pacific Grove, CA in June, 2007:
http://bss.sfsu.edu/kmosier/ndm8.htm

Hope this helps.

Cheers,

Winston

Winston R. Sieck, PhD
Principal Scientist
Group Leader, Cognitive Science
Klein Associates Division
Applied Research Associates, Inc.

1750 Commerce Center Blvd.
Fairborn, OH 45324-3987
(937) 873-8166 ext 107
www.decisionmaking.com

------------------------------

Message: 2
Date: Thu, 10 Aug 2006 09:29:03 -0700
From: "Deborah Frisch" <dfrisch at pobox.com>
Subject: [Jdm-society] golda meir, feminist bank tellers, etc.
To: <jdm-society at mail.sjdm.org>
Message-ID: <01fa01c6bc9a$194c15c0$0200a8c0 at D635V971>
Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="iso-8859-1";
	reply-type=original

I recently came across a Wikipedia page of quotes attributed to Golda Meir
and many of them are fascinating from a JDM perspective as well as shedding
light on Israel's recent aggression against Lebanese civilians.

1.We have always said that in our war with the Arabs we had a secret weapon
- no alternative.

LIFE magazine (3 October 1969)
This bias "illusion of no choice" is probably the biggest, most dangerous
decision bias I can imagine.  Yet I cannot think of a JDM article relating
to it.  Is there research on "illusion of no choice?"

2. "Women's Liberation is just a lot of foolishness. It's the men who are
discriminated against. They can't bear children. And no one's likely to do
anything about that. "

Newsweek (23 October 1972)

"Those nuts that burn their bras and walk around all disheveled and hate
men? They're crazy. Crazy."

Ms. Meir, one of the first woman leaders of a nation in the history of
humankind, was a proud anti-feminist.  Isn't there something a little
strange about a woman being so anti-feminist in 1969?  It sure does explain
a lot, though.

What a far cry, for example, from Princeton President Shirley Tilghman, who
gracefully integrates being a top-notch scientist, administrator and
feminist.

http://www-cms-edit.princeton.edu//main/news/archive/S11/21/06G40/
3. "To be successful, a woman has to be much better at her job than a
man."Isn't there a blatant inconsistency between the beliefs expressed in 2
and 3?
Isn't this inconsistency re: discrimination against women (half Shirley
Tilghman/half Larry Summers) just as illogical (and infinitely more
dangerous and discouraging) than the conjunction effect?
4. A leader who doesn't hesitate before he sends his nation into battle is
not fit to be a leader.
Perhaps Mrs. Bush, Blair and Olmert should consider this statement. 

------------------------------

_______________________________________________
Jdm-society mailing list
Jdm-society at mail.sjdm.org
http://www.sjdm.org/mailman/listinfo/jdm-society

End of Jdm-society Digest, Vol 92, Issue 9
******************************************