NOTE TO BROWSERS:

This syllabus is at the other end of the spectrum from most posted here to date. This course has been taught only in summer session, typically in a format of 16 classes of 2.5 hours over four weeks. Each class is divided into brief prepared remarks and motivating examples that I present, discussion based on the student preparation, and then occasionally videos, labs (such as R. Gifford's FISH simulation of the commons dilemma), or brief "classical" experiments and exercises.

The only course prerequisite is Introductory Psychology. The course has enrolled students at all levels, from our institution and from others "summering" in Vermont, from presophomores to professionals in vocational rehab, mental health, and public school teachers. It has been very well received by most, and has been personally rewarding in that many of the "alumni" have stayed in touch, become psychology majors, and/or taken my more advanced courses, particularly in cognitive psychology.

I hope it's a useful addition to the collection, and thanks to Alan Schwartz for taking on this task.

Best wishes,

Larry Gordon

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* Lawrence R. Gordon, Ph.D.*

* Professor of Psychology *

* University of Vermont *

* John Dewey Hall *

* Burlington VT 054050134 *

* VOICE: 802/6562670 *

* Lawrence.Gordon@uvm.edu *

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Summer 1996, University of Vermont Instructor: L. R. Gordon

Psychology 195: Current Topics

PSYCHOLOGY OF DECISION MAKING

This course will survey modern ideas in decision making, with due attention to the historical origins of this work, its development as a specialty within cognitive psychology, and its impact on our everyday lives. The original interest was in "normative" decision making (how best to?; "reflection"), particularly in games of chance. Empirical research revealed discrepancies between derived "optimal" strategies, and the actual behavior of everyday folk making decisions. This approach is termed "descriptive" or "behavioral" decision making (how do we?; "observation"). Its recent emergence as an aspect of social and cognitive psychology recognizes that people use various tricks that simplify cognitive processing; although these "heuristics" usually serve us well, they may also become "traps" that lead to poor decisional results for the unwary. An emphasis on understanding these tricks and traps can lead to better decisions both in formal settings (e.g., business, medicine, psychotherapy) and in our everyday lives. This strategy, to attempt to approximate normative ideals by studying and countering "biases" that have been discovered behaviorally, has been termed "prescriptive" decision making (how should we?; "design"), which, I hope, will be a major outcome of this course.

Resources: The primary textbook for the course is...

Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. NY: McGraw-Hill (ppbk.)

which is supplemented by...

Langer, E. J. (1989). Mindfulness. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley (ppbk.).

and...

occasional handouts of brief supplementary readings from instructor.

The course is organized around a (nearly) successive reading of the of the texts (see Class Schedule and Reading Assignments, p. 2). The subject matter of these chapters can be seen on the Textbook Summaries (p. 3).

Daily plan: You will be expected to have read the material assigned BEFORE the class devoted to that topic. After you've read, please think about and write down for each class, on the supplied DECISION LOG, questions raised by the reading, elaboration or clarification you'd like, and relationships to your own decision experiences. Following an open, guided discussion of the material, class time will be spent in activities further exploring the material.

Student obligations, grades. During the course each student will be expected to thoughtfully keep up with reading assignments, and contribute to the class discussion with observations and questions. Each student will submit a DECISION LOG daily, will present to the class a chapter from the Langer text, and will complete a "take-home final," which includes course- and self-assessment and a course "project" applying what you have learned to the analysis of a major personal life decision. Grades will be based entirely on the record of student participation: attendance, contribution to discussion, active engagement with the material (via LOGS), the presentation, and the "final." See page 4 for details!

INSTRUCTOR: Lawrence ("Larry") R. Gordon

Office: 204 John Dewey Hall (656-2670 and leave message)

Office hours: Tu-Fr 12:30-1:00 pm

E-mail: lawrence.gordon@uvm.edu

Hours subject to change or cancellation; will gladly confirm or take appointment -- see me or call.)

CLASS SCHEDULE AND READING ASSIGNMENTS

Class Date Class topic Assignment1

1 May 21 Tu Introduction to course; brief "history" of DM GET BOOKS

2 May 22 W Basics in psychology I: perception and thought P12&2

3 May 23 Th Basics in psychology II: memory and context P3&4; L13

4 May 24 F Questions and answers P5&6

5 May 28 Tu Classical DM: quest for normative models P7&8; L2; S14

6 May 29 W Modern models: now more descriptive P9; L3

7 May 30 Th Heuristics: representativeness & availability P10&11

8 May 31 F Heuristics: probability and risk P12; L4

9 Jun 4 Tu Heuristics: anchoring and randomness P13&14; L5

10 Jun 5 W Heuristics: correlation and causation P15; L6

11 Jun 6 Th Heuristics: attribution theory P16; L7

12 Jun 7 F Social influences on DM P17; L8

13 Jun 11 Tu DM by groups P18; L9

14 Jun 12 W Trap: overconfidence P19; L10

15 Jun 13 Th Traps: self-fulfilling prophecy & behavioral traps P20&21

16 Jun 14 F Synthesis "Take-home FINAL" due at class P:Aftwd; L:Eplg

1 All reading assignments are to be completed before this class meeting!!

2 Plous (1993), The psychology of judgment and decision making. [Code: P]

3 Langer (1989), Mindfulness. [Code: L]

4 Supplemental reading (distributed in class) [Code: S]; there may be others, as well.

TEXTBOOK SUMMARIES:

P: Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. NY: McGraw-Hill.

SECTION I: PERCEPTION, MEMORY, AND CONTEXT

Chapter 1. Selective perception.

Chapter 2. Cognitive dissonance

Chapter 3. Memory and hindsight biases.

Chapter 4. Context dependence.

SECTION II: HOW QUESTIONS AFFECT ANSWERS

Chapter 5. Plasticity.

Chapter 6. Effects of question wording and framing.

SECTION III: MODELS OF DECISION MAKING

Chapter 7. Expected utility theory.

Chapter 8. Paradoxes in rationality.

Chapter 9. Descriptive models of decision making.

SECTION IV: HEURISTICS AND BIASES

Chapter 10. The representativeness heuristic.

Chapter 11. The availablility heuristic.

Chapter 12. Probability and risk.

Chapter 13. Anchoring and adjustment.

Chapter 14. The perception of randomness.

Chapter 15. Correlation, causation, and control.

Chapter 16. Attribution theory.

SECTION V: THE SOCIAL SIDE OF JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING

Chapter 17. Social influences.

Chapter 18. Group judgments and decisions.

SECTION VI: COMMON TRAPS

Chapter 19. Overconfidence.

Chapter 20. Self-fulfilling prophecies.

Chapter 21. Behavioral traps.

AFTERWORD: Taking a step back.

L: Langer, E. J. (1989). Mindfulness. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.

Chapter 1. Introduction.

PART ONE: MINDLESSNESS

Chapter 2. When the light's on and nobody's home.

Chapter 3. The roots of mindlessness.

Chapter 4. The costs of mindlessness.

PART TWO: MINDFULNESS

Chapter 5. The nature of mindfulness.

Chapter 6. Mindful aging.

Chapter 7. Creative uncertainty.

Chapter 8. Mindfulness on the job.

Chapter 9. Decreasing prejudice by increasing discrimination.

Chapter 10. Minding matters: Mindfulness and health.

EPILOGUE: Beyond mindfulness.

COURSE ASSIGNMENTS

I. DECISION LOGS (45%)

Beginning tomorrow (5/22), for each daily reading assignment from the Plous and Langer texts, please complete a daily "decision log" on the form provided (see page 5), or a facsimile if you prefer to type or use a word processor. Generally, after reading the material, the log guides you to reflect on it - to make some judgments about what was most interesting, what questions it raised, what concepts were unclear, and how this material might apply to your own decision making. You will hand these in at the end of each class, and they will be read and returned the next day, with brief comments. PLEASE NOTE: this is not an assignment to "blow off," because it replaces "cramming" for quizzes and exams with what I, and other cognitive psychologists, believe to be a more interesting, rewarding, and lasting way to "process" course material. However, your diligent and thoughtful work on these will be an important part of the assessment for grading. HAVE FUN -- DO THINGS THAT INTEREST YOU!!!

II. "Interactions" (15%)

Other behaviors contributing to a final assessment will include regular class attendance, participation in class activities (including asking questions and contributing to discussion), and timely completion of assignments. Please note that I do not use a "system" of grading which demands a certain "distribution" of grades---if you show me that you're working and learning, it's possible for you to earn any grade regardless of what other students get. Because you're not competing with each other, please feel open to cooperate, contribute, and help one another to learn.

III. Class presentations (20%)

Beginning next week (5/28), chapters in the Langer text will be presented by students working alone or in pairs (we'll discuss which). It will be expected that ALL of us will have read the chapter and reacted to it before it is presented. Presenters will be expected to summarize the main ideas and illustrate them by examples, typically including tracking down a source referenced in the chapter to fill in details. They will then lead a class discussion, which might include relating the material to ideas from the text, and eliciting and discussing "real-life" applications. Each presenting group will have a total of 45 minutes, including discussion, and will receive feedback from the rest of the class.

IV. Course project (major part of "take-home final") (20%)

The objective of the course project is to bring to bear the ideas and skills gained in the course on the analysis of a major decision you faced in the past or expect to in the future. It would be useful to choose several possibilities NOW and to think about them regularly as you progress through the course. The written analysis should entail about 3-5 typewritten pages, and will be due at the last class. These will be confidential between me and you. A major criterion in assessing these will be the "sophistication" of your analysis, in the sense of bringing to bear concepts and frameworks learned in the course, including proper use of the language of decision making. The remainder of the "take-home final" entails self-assessment and feedback on the course.

PSYC 195: DECISION LOG [italics are some suggestions for approaching each item]

NAME CHAPTERS DATE

USE THE OTHER SIDE FOR NOTES ON CHAPTERS OR RELATED IDEAS: due at the first class for which chapter was assigned. You'll get these back at the next class or so and they'll be a personal record of the course content and your thoughts about it.

THE MOST INTERESTING OR STRIKING IDEA IN THE CHAPTER FROM THE PLOUS TEXT:

Try to explain briefly WHY you selected it --- did it make an association to your life, other courses you've had, something you've read or seen in the media?

SOME QUESTIONS (2 OR MORE) THE MATERIAL IN PLOUS RAISED (EITHER SOMETHING YOU DIDN'T UNDERSTAND, OR SOME FURTHER POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS):

Try to develop the questions or issues succinctly for possible exploration together with the class. It might even help to think of it as writing "short-answer" essay questions for an exam. (Or maybe not!)

RELATE THE PLOUS CHAPTER TO AN EXAMPLE FROM YOUR OWN EXPERIENCE IN MAKING DECISIONS:

This is an "application" question; try to develop your idea at some length and make it interesting and useful to yourself personally. The "decision" discussed does NOT need to be a momentous one, but may be something you do every day and want to re-examine. Try to have fun with this one!

THE MOST INTERESTING OR STRIKING IDEA FROM THE OTHER ASSIGNED READING (USUALLY LANGER):

See first item above.

RELATE THE OTHER ASSIGNED READING (USUALLY LANGER) TO AN EXAMPLE FROM YOUR OWN EXPERIENCE :\

See third item above.

NOTE: the space allotted for each item on the actual logs is intentionally suggestive of the absolute amount of writing to be done on each. Extra "Logs" will be in a folder outside 246 Dewey.

OTHER RESOURCES "FOR THE RECORD"

Plous (1993) has an excellent listing of current books by topic on pages 262-263.

The Annual Review of Psychology periodically reviews the field of decision making and some cognate areas; a listing of these follows:

1961: Behavioral decision theory (Edwards)

1972: Individual decision behavior (Rapoport & Wallsten)

1977: Behavioral decision theory (Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein)

Twenty years of experimental gaming (Pruitt & Kimmel)

1980: Social dilemmas (Dawes)

1981: Behavioral decision theory: Process of judgment and choice (Einhorn & Hogarth)

1984: Judgment and decision (Pitz & Sachs)

1990: Reasoning (Rips)

1992: Behavioral decision research: A constructive processing perspective (Payne, Bettman, & Johnson)

1993: Social cognition and social perception (Fiske)

1994: Psychology and economics: Perspectives on risk, cooperation, and the marketplace (Lopes)

1996: The motivational impact of temporal focus: Thinking about the future and the past (Karniol & Ross)

Some major journals relevant to judgment and decision making:

»Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

»Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

»Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

»Acta Psychologica

»Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

»Journal of Experimental Social Psychology; J Applied Social Psychology; etc.

»Journal of Experimental Psychology: (1) General; (2) Human Perception and Performance; (3) Learning, Memory, and Cognition

»Psychological Science; Current Directions in Psychological Science

»Management Science; Journal of Marketing Research; etc.

Some additional recent works that are noteworthy:

»Baron, J. (1994). Thinking and deciding. (2nd ed.). NY: Cambridge University Press. Solid treatment from psychology standpoint; not shy about mathematical arguments, but explains them well.

»Clemen, R.T. (1996). Making hard decisions: An introduction to decision analysis (2nd ed.). Belmont, CA: Duxbury Press. "Normative" DM as taught in schools of business and management.

»Dawes, R.M. (1994). House of cards: Psychology and psychotherapy built on myth. NY: The Free Press. Careful critical examination of research bearing on "cherished clinical assumptions and therapeutic methods now in use"; much of the analysis is from a decision theoretic viewpoint using ideas like heuristics and biases examined in this course.

»Kleindorfer, P.R., Kunreuther, H.C., & Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1993). Decision sciences: An integrative perspective. NY: Cambridge University Press. Up through individual, group, organization, and societal DM, with nice chapter on "problem finding and alternative generation."

»Paulos, J. A. (1995). A mathematician reads the newspaper. NY: BasicBooks. Now out in paperback at most bookstores --- delightful "application" of many things covered in the course to issues of everyday life, such as politics, economics, business, social issues, medicine, environment, food, sports,...! Paulos is best known for his little book, Innumeracy: Mathematical illiteracy and its consequences, in 1988. Both easy to read.

»von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. NY: Cambridge University Press. The next level up from this course, but covers same topics.

»Yates, J.F. (1990). Judgment and decision making. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, Inc. This would be my "current" choice as the best text for a "200-level" course in J/DM. More careful mathematical exposition, but in context of good examples and clear exposition.